840
FXUS66 KSTO 072249
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
249 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Minor precipitation impacts Sunday into early next week with rain
and mountain snow expected, highest over the mountains and N.
Sacramento Valley
- A stronger, colder system will bring widespread precipitation across
the area, with snowfall bringing moderate travel impacts over the
northern Sierra and southern Cascades Tuesday into Wednesday
- A potentially wetter and colder system arrives Friday through next weekend,
which could bring travel impacts for the holiday weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Today...Morning dense fog was very localized, mainly centered
around Sacramento Executive Airport for a short period around
daybreak. There was some morning mist elsewhere in the Sacramento
area and over the northern San Joaquin Valley. High clouds were a
limiting factor, and increasing clouds should limit dense fog
even more overnight into early Sunday, though some local patches
of fog are possible from around Sacramento southward into the
northern San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures this afternoon are again
quite mild, with Valley, Delta and foothill highs in the mid to
upper 60s.
...Sunday through Thursday...
As the upper level ridge that has brought the area generally
mild, dry and sometimes foggy weather breaks down and shifts
eastward, temperatures will begin to trend downward. A shortwave
centered mainly over the Pacific Northwest will brush through
Northern California during the day Sunday bringing a chance of
light precipitation, mainly to the mountains north of I-80. Snow
levels are high (7000-8000 feet) so this will be largely rain,
with just a dusting of snow possible for Lassen Park and the
Sierra crest on Monday. Most areas will be dry Monday, with mostly
cloudy skies, cooler, more seasonable temperatures and breezy
northerly winds, gusting up to 20 to 25 mph.
A stronger, more significant trough passes through on Tuesday
into early Thursday, bringing along rain showers, accumulating
mountain snow, breezy winds and cooler temperatures Sunday through
the middle of next week. This system has trended stronger, with
Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from 10 pm Monday through 4
pm Wednesday for the northern Sierra and the southern Cascades and
Lassen Park above 5000 feet. Snow levels start around 5000 to 6000
feet early Tuesday, dropping to around 4500 feet Wednesday.
Snowfall totals have increased, with 4 to 10 inches above 5000
feet, 10 to 18 inches above 6000 feet, and locally higher amounts
possible over higher peaks. Heaviest snowfall is expected during
the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Expect delays and chain
controls on mountain freeways such as I-80 and US Highway 50.
Rainfall amounts in the Valley are expected to be generally around
a tenth to a third of an inch, though they could be locally
higher in thunderstorms. This should limit impacts from rainfall
to be mainly slippery travel on roads. The latest probability of
thunderstorms has increased to 15% for Tuesday, centered over the
southern and central Sacramento Valley and into the foothills.
...Friday and onward...
A potentially wetter and colder system arrives Friday through
next weekend. With increased travel due to the Presidents Day
holiday, next weekend could see significant travel impacts. Stay
tuned as more details become available!
The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook favors below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the
February 15th through 21st timeframe, leaning towards the active
weather pattern continuing through the 3rd week of February.
[Monday-Wednesday 4PM] Sierra Chances for 4" of Snow or More:
80-95%
[Monday-Wednesday 4PM] Sierra Chances for 8" of Snow or
More: 75-85%
[Monday-Wednesday 4PM] Sierra Chances for 12" of Snow
or More: 55-75%
&&
.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions continue the rest of today into tonight.
High cloud cover from an approaching system should limit dense fog
development, though some areas of MVFR conditions are expected
tonight across the southern Sacramento Valley into the northern
San Joaquin Valley from mist through 18z Sunday. The northern San
Joaquin Valley could briefly see conditions worsen to IFR to LIFR
conditions after 15-18z Sunday. After 15-18z Sunday light rain
showers are possible over the northern Sacramento Valley. Light
winds are expected across the area, outside of southwest gusts up
to 20-30 kts over the Sierra crest after 18z Sunday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$
